Sunday, January 10, 2010

Sway

One of my goals for 2010 is to read more non-fiction, and the first book was Sway: The Irresistible Pull of Irrational Behavior. Economics normally assumes that people are rationally self-interested; this book is a series of anecdotes showing that they're not.
In one experiment, the experimenters put a subject in a room with other people, showed them all three lines, and asked them whether line A, B or C was the longest. If all the other people in the room pick A (having been secretly instructed to do so), the subject will probably also pick A even if the right answer is obviously C. However, as long as at least one other person picks another answer--even if that person is blind and picks B--that dramatically improves the chance that the subject will be willing to go against the group and pick the right answer. There were several real-life examples from boardrooms and cockpits showing the same thing--in order to avoid groupthink blinding people, you need to have someone who's willing to challenge the consensus. (The authors also uncritically cite France arguing against the US in the debate about whether to invade Iraq; from my point of view, that shows that when you pick a devil's advocate, you should choose who is willing to argue with you but has your best interest in mind, instead of someone who's been bribed by your enemy).
In another experiment, the experimenter auctions a $20 bill, with one dollar bids and the condition that the top two bidders both pay their bid amount but only the high bidder gets the $20. Typically people get it the bidding up to around $16 and then realize "if I'm second, I lose my $16 and I get nothing, so I need to keep bidding"; a few minutes later the bid is at $20 and they're thinking "My bid was $19, if I quit now I lose that; whereas if I bid $21, I end up only losing a dollar", so they keep bidding it up--with a record bid of $204. Again, the authors present several real life examples showing how people will keep trying to avoid a loss and end up losing a fortune--the term is "pouring good money after bad" or "chasing a loss". You need to emotionally detach yourself from the past so you can see the situation you're in right now, and therefore see whether you should cut your losses.
As a third experiment, instructors were told that some trainees (chosen randomly by the experimenters) were highly rated and had good leadership potential. At the end of the course, those trainees had significantly higher scores even though there was no difference between them and the other trainees. In another example, an drink improved people's performance more when it was high-priced than it did when it was cheap or free. People tend to live up to expectations.
I have to say that I don't think the book was well organized or particularly deep. I'd like to have seen more discussion about other types of cognitive biases, and more discussion of "this is what you can do to avoid them". However, the book was an entertaining light read and it's always good to get a reminder to be rational. I'd recommend picking this up at the library.

Flash cookies

In addition to normal cookies, it turns out your computer probably also has Flash cookies. Allegedly you can avoid them by using Adobe's Flash Settings page, but it may not work. I put my settings on "ask me every time", then went to half a dozen video sites like Metacafe and Youtube. I got half a dozen cookies and no queries.
Hat tip to Barbra for pointing out this problem.

Saturday, January 9, 2010

100 Things we didn't know last year

A list from BBC News, including "Canada used to border Zimbabwe" and other interesting tidbits.

Monday, January 4, 2010

Examen

Pastor Randy touched on the Examen of St Ignatius of Loyola, and mentioned a number of questions which we might ask ourselves during a daily examination. Two of them in particular stood out for me:
  • What, in the past 24 hours, am I most grateful for?
  • When, in the past 24 hours, were you cooperating with God?
I'll have to add "not counting your wife" to the first, as otherwise it would get monotonously predictable; but with that added, it's a good question to answer daily.

Winter games

The temperature has dropped to "unbearably cold", which means it's so cold that any sensible bear would move south. There's a skin of ice on the river, which I don't recall seeing in past years--although it must have happened in past years, so maybe my memory has just rejected such a traumatic experience. And there's a brisk wind, straight from the Canadian Rockies, roaring across that river and straight into my unsheltered house. Consequently we've been enjoying a game of "Find the Draft". That's not draft as in "beer", that's draft as in "why look, I can see daylight through the window frame, perhaps that has something to do with why my left shoulder is sheathed in ice." Thus far I've used two rolls of weather stripping and half a tube of caulk, and while it's still not toasty inside, at least it's noticeably warmer.

Sunday, January 3, 2010

Virginia War Museum

We went to the Virginia War Museum in Newport News, about 45 minutes drive from home. They had some cool stuff, and it was kind of depressing. The exhibits are mostly about things-- weapons, uniforms, vehicles--rather than people or events; and they are mostly things that were mass produced, stamped out at a factory, rather than something an artisan put his time and skill and attention into. Even the propaganda posters were mostly simple, blocky, ugly. I was reminded of something from Cryptonomicon, where Cantrell is talking about guns: "Holding one of those things in your hands, cleaning the barrel and shoving the rounds into clips, really brings you face-to-face with what a desperate, last-ditch measure they really are."
But then you turn a corner and one of the posters is about the Rape of Nanking, and you're forced to conclude that no matter how ugly and stupid and wasteful war is, some times it really is necessary as the only way to cut short a greater evil.

Friday, January 1, 2010

New Year's Eve

Diana and I went with Gary and Kathryn Peterson to have New Year's Eve dinner at Bellemonte. Diana had the seafood risotta; Gary and Kathryn decided on chicken roulade; I had filet Oscar with hollandaise, asparagus, garlic mashed potatoes. I gather the sauce for beef is supposed to be bearnaise, but hollandaise was fine with me and would have been finer if there had been more of it. No room for dessert, so we waddled home. Someone started a bit early with the fireworks and that was enough to keep me awake past midnight.